On June 8 the nodal weather agency of India (IMD) declared the arrival of the 2016 Southwest Monsoon over the Indian state of Kerala. This season is expected to be rainier than recent years. The El Nino conditions which have been blamed for recent disappointing monsoons has weakened to ENSO-neutral conditions. ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to transition to La Nina in the northern hemisphere by the fall and winter of 2016-17. La Nina conditions normally result in beneficial wetter and cooler monsoons in India.

An animation of weekly rainfall totals was derived from NASA's Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) data. It shows the encroachment of monsoon rainfall onto India's southwestern coast. Rainfall totals were color enhanced in this animation. Lower rainfall totals are displayed in green and higher amounts, reaching over 600 mm (23 inches) per week, are shown in light purple. Extremely heavy rainfall is also shown by IMERG along the coasts of Bangladesh and Burma (Myanmar) on the northeastern side of the Bay Of Bengal.